In the spring of 2019, carbon dioxide — the most common form of climate pollution — reached atmospheric concentrations of 415 parts per million, a level not seen in the entirety of human history. Even as global efforts are undertaken to reduce climate pollution and avoid the worst harms of climate change, certain impacts are now unavoidable given the longevity of CO2 as a heat-trapping gas. Climate change is already driving: more-intense hurricanes and more-frequent wildfires; droughts and water resource challenges; heat waves; coastal and inland flooding; and the spread of tropical diseases throughout the globe. These climate impacts will drive global instability. And their impact is already being felt, as we’ve seen: in the conflict in Syria, where a three-year climate-related drought forced 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to the urban periphery; in crop failure and displaced persons in Central America; and internal migration in Bangladesh and an increasing number of small island states.
The security threats and risks of climate change have been made perfectly clear in the last twelve Worldwide Threat Assessments of the U.S. National Intelligence Community, including the latest released by National Intelligence Director Dan Coats in January 2019, which states, “Climate hazards such as extreme weather, higher temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, sea level rise, soil degradation, and acidifying oceans are intensifying, threatening infrastructure, health, and water and food security. Irreversible damage to ecosystems and habitats will undermine the economic benefits they provide, worsened by air, soil, water, and marine pollution.”
Under President Trump, American policy has denied the scientific, humanitarian, and security realities of climate change. The Inslee Administration will bring a dramatic change: Advancing foreign and domestic policies that address the human and environmental impacts of climate change that are occurring today. Governor Inslee's plan will adapt America's immigration policy to the reality of climate migration, increase assets for climate security, and lead on a more coordinated global response to increased climate-related disasters.
Fulfilling America’s Obligation to Protect Displaced Communities & Asylum Seekers
Due to climate change and other factors, the world faces a global crisis of displacement unlike any since World War II. An estimated 68.5 million people have been displaced worldwide, including nearly 30 million refugees and asylum seekers. This instability is also further fueling an ascendant global right-wing nationalist movement that is pushing nations toward inhumane and unjust treatment of vulnerable populations — building walls between nations rather than partnerships within the global community.
Climate change is contributing to an expanding refugee crisis both directly, with 24 million people displaced on average each year around the world since 2008 due to extreme weather events, and indirectly, as climate change impacts force people to migrate in search of food, water, shelter, or to avoid conflict. Addressing the worldwide expansion of refugees, including increasing numbers displaced by climate change, is an essential part of restoring America’s global leadership and meeting the humanitarian and security challenges in the 21st century. Governor Inslee’s “America’s Promise” immigration policy plan provides a humane and thoughtful approach to U.S. refugee policy, including:
- Raising the ceiling for annual refugee admissions to the United States to allow for the acceptance of historic numbers of refugees, meeting and eventually exceeding the target of 110,000 refugees that was set during the final year of the Obama Administration. This is a minimum standard for the United States to reclaim its historic leadership role in resettling refugees. These damaging caps serve only to undermine our international leadership and rob our country of contributions from those eager to participate in our economy and society. Governor Inslee will right this unprecedented wrong.
- Ending the Trump Administration’s “Remain in Mexico” policy that forces asylum seekers from Central American countries to await adjudication of their case in Mexico, rather than in the United States, as has historically been the case. This policy was blocked by a U.S. federal judge in April 2019, but is ongoing while appeals are in process.
- Order the withdrawal of all U.S. military personnel deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border in support of immigration enforcement and canceling the use of non-immigration funding streams currently being reprogrammed to fund the border wall.
- Reverse Trump Administration decisions that eliminated Temporary Protected Status (TPS) protections for immigrants and refugees from El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and for individuals covered by the Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) program.
- Launching a regional refugee resettlement initiative that brings together the efforts of national governments, NGOs, and international partners such as the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to collectively manage the unique needs of applicants from the Northern Triangle region. Such an approach will: help reduce the length of third-country stays; help facilitate necessary security and medical checks; and train and support in-country partners that can identify and refer cases of individuals in greatest need of resettlement.
- Directing the Secretary of State and Secretary of Homeland Security to expand cooperation with the UNHCR and the Mexican government to strengthen procedures and institutions for applicants seeking asylum in Mexico.
- Identifying alternative pathways to bring qualifying refugees to the United States, diminishing the need to transit through U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry.
- Ensuring qualified U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officials, who are critical to systems supporting legal immigration to the United States, are conducting credible fear interviews of asylum seekers. In fiscal year 2018, 75% of the nearly 100,000 individuals seeking asylum passed their credible fear interviews and advanced to the next step in the process, demonstrating the scale of the need for asylum.
- Restoring and significantly expanding the scale of caseload management systems for connecting refugees and asylum seekers with infrastructure to ensure effective participation in hearings, including legal aid resources and interpreter services. From 2016 to 2017, the Department of Homeland Security piloted the Family Case Management Program that achieved 99% participation appearance rates for immigration hearings. Despite its success, the Trump Administration abandoned the program.
Addressing Climate Change and Root Causes of Displacement in Central America and Migration to the United States
Climate change is a direct driver of displacement of people from their homes and communities in Central America — and has especially caused migration to the United States by families from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. A report by the World Bank estimates that climate-related migration could drive 4 million people to flee Central America by mid-century. In particular, water scarcity and degradation of the viability of coffee growing in the western highlands of Guatemala and other agricultural areas is being severely exacerbated by climate change. These ecological and economic changes undermine the foundations of whole communities and regions, and increase migration to the United States and elsewhere. These factors, combined with rising gang violence and the need to strengthen government institutions, mean U.S. engagement is critical to advancing a cohesive strategy that serves the entire region’s interests.
The United States and Central America will benefit from greater American assistance to the governments of the Northern Triangle nations. The Trump Administration’s attempts to deter these migrants through fear and cruelty, and to bully regional governments rather than work with them, have failed. It is imperative that the U.S. government work with governments of countries from which migrants are traveling, as well as those of countries through which they travel and in which they settle, on a joint approach to responsibly integrate the processing of asylum seekers into our overall immigration system. Governor Inslee’s America’s Promise plan, released in May 2019, includes:
- Restoring and expanding federal foreign assistance funding for the Northern Triangle nations of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In April 2019, the State Department diverted $450 million in funding for these nations that supported anti-poverty, education, and food and agriculture assistance programs in these three countries.
- Restoring the Central American Minors (CAM) program to allow for reunification of qualifying minor children from the region, and expanding in-country processing of immigrants seeking entry to the United States from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Trump Administration has closed international offices of the USCIS, undermining in-country processing efforts. Working effectively with national governments and immigrant assistance organizations to establish personnel and facilities that can conduct advance screening and processing of applicants will help eliminate the incentive to make dangerous overland journeys to America and reduce the volume of crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.
- Evaluating options for adoption of the U.N. Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) to ensure U.S. participation in a globally coordinated strategy to address the challenges migration poses. The GCM: establishes systems for information sharing and analysis to predict and address migration; deals with the impacts of both sudden-onset extreme weather events and slow-onset climate change impacts; and strengthens regional and international cooperation to address irregular migration caused by climate change and other root causes.
- Advocating for the creation of a U.N. Special Rapporteur on Climate and Security to oversee the emergence of global climate-related security threats, conflict, instability, and humanitarian crises, and regularly report on the effectiveness of the U.N. response to these threats. The Rapporteur will work with the Security Council and other member states to create a comprehensive plan for improving the capacity of the U.N. to coordinate responses to climate-related displacement and disasters.
Supporting Sustainable Livelihoods to Stabilize Climate-Impacted Communities
In addition to overt disasters, other negative impacts of a changing climate are also already actively felt today. This is especially acute where high percentages of the population still earn their livelihood directly from working the land or harvesting natural resources. These ecological and economic changes undermine the foundations of whole communities and regions, pushing increasingly desperate families toward emigration. Such widespread distress is increasingly common in many rural and resource-dependent communities around the globe. This has triggered an epidemic of suicides among farmers who bear witness to the human toll of ecological disruption, as agricultural workers find it increasingly difficult to manage economic uncertainty and plant crops in a changing environment of extreme drought and flooding. According to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in India alone nearly 60,000 farmer suicides can be directly attributed to climate impacts, with farmers causing national suicide rates to nearly double.
In the face of such unpredictability, ever greater numbers of formerly rural workers are migrating to cities, adding further stress on oversaturated labor markets and contributing to high levels of unemployment and underemployment. This impact is especially acute for younger workers. As a result of these cascading drivers of social disruption and economic dislocation, the number of people vulnerable to the ravages of climate change extends well beyond the number directly dislocated as climate migrants. The United States should join national governments, NGOs, and international institutions in addressing these long-term challenges to sustainable livelihoods, including:
- Incentivizing and supporting the ability of other countries, especially large emitters among the emerging economies and the most vulnerable Least Developed Countries, to prepare their own national climate assessments modeled after the annual U.S. National Climate Assessment — with an aim to increase internal capacity for understanding current climate impacts and future threats by region and sector of the economy. This outreach work will be overseen through the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which produces the annual U.S. National Climate Assessment, and the Department of State. Countries developing this capacity will be eligible for a special designated fund administered through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on reducing climate and security threats.
- Directing USAID, the State Department, and other development and relief agencies to work across programs and prioritize support for locally driven efforts to: stabilize local economies and provide for sustainable livelihoods in the face of climate disruption; increase economic opportunity and wealth creation; and reduce the need for families to migrate. These efforts will target ongoing development as well as strategies for disaster response and recovery, and address the root causes of large-scale family migration, by promoting livelihoods that can be supported in the face of climate change — addressing increasing water scarcity and resilience to disaster.
Creating Capacity for Coordinating and Deploying U.S. Assets on Climate Security
For years, official U.S. government reports and testimony from senior Department of Defense and intelligence officials from Republican and Democratic administrations have confirmed that climate change is an increasingly critical national and global security threat. In other words, America’s collective, official, authoritative intelligence community agrees that climate change should factor into security and defense interests. Furthermore, the Department of Defense understands the realities of climate change, which in the past year alone has caused more than $8 billion in damages at bases Tyndall AFB (FL), Camp Lejeune (NC) and Offutt AFB (NE), in climate-related major disasters.
Nonetheless, under a president who denies climate change, America still lacks a coordinated and integrated whole-of-government operation for building resilience against, and responding to, unfolding global climate change impacts, including major disasters and displacement events around the world. Governor Inslee’s plan will direct America’s security and foreign policy apparatus to lead on a 21st century strategy to address head-on climate and security threats. It includes:
- Creating a whole-of-government approach to climate and security rather than allowing parts of this critical discussion to remain siloed in different departments and agencies. Immediately tasking the White House National Security Council (NSC) to conduct a thorough assessment of U.S. assets for prediction of climate stressors in vulnerable nation-states, and review currently existing capacity for development, diplomatic, and military responses. The NSC will convene to recommend a plan to the president to enhance coordination across agencies and departments. A newly established Deputy National Security Advisor and Assistant to the President for Climate & Energy Security — an elevation of this portfolio in the NSC over all previous administrations — will be charged in part with executing this strategy, will enhance coordination and build capacity across agencies and departments, including NOAA, NASA, State, USAID, Defense, and the combined intelligence agencies, to enable rapid response to climate-related security risks and events. This includes requiring all departments and agencies to develop and implement Climate Security Roadmaps (successors to the former Climate Adaptation Roadmaps).
- Reinstating the Presidential Memorandum on Climate Change and National Security, and mandating that the National Defense Strategy, the Quadrennial Diplomatic and Development Review, the Quadrennial Energy Review, the Quadrennial Homeland Security Review, and the Quadrennial Industrial Review include focus on climate security impacts.
- Elevating climate priorities and the capability of the Department of Defense to assist in climate action, by designating a Climate Change and Security Lead within the Office of the Secretary of Defense. This position will be responsible for coordinating DOD equities in climate resilience and response. This includes incorporation of climate and security planning at the J-5 Joint Chiefs of Staff planning level, and for humanitarian assistance, recovery planning, operations and planning.
- Establishing a U.S. Special Envoy for Climate & Security that will oversee a new Climate and Security Office at the Department of State. Despite several years of discussion of coordinated climate and security capacity in forums like the G7 and the UN Security Council, international cooperation on these threats is still in its infancy. A U.S. Special Envoy for Climate & Security housed in the State Department and working across the federal government would ensure greater focus on international engagement and collaboration in this area at both multilateral and bilateral fora and at the regional and global levels. The Climate & Security Envoy would coordinate diplomatic outreach in all countries through every U.S. embassy and USAID mission by establishing designated climate and security officers in these facilities. All U.S. ambassadors and directors of USAID missions would be trained in enhancing climate and security resilience and preparedness.
- Expanding and investing additional resources into the joint Department of State-DOD Security and Contingency Fund, to empower it to help confront the climate crisis. This program was created in 2011 “for State and the DOD to jointly fund and plan security-related assistance.” The stated purpose of the fund as created was to “address rapidly changing, transnational, asymmetric threats,” and advocates have rightly pointed out the utility of this fund in responding to the climate crisis. In particular it can support interagency response to help overseas communities in overseas preparedness, response and recovery to climate disasters and impacts.
- Requiring the National Intelligence Council to establish a Climate and Security Center that will produce new annual and decadal stand-alone global climate threat assessments, coordinated with federal science agencies and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research to ensure the most accurate and up-to-date understanding of the science of climate attribution to extreme and slow-onset events, as well as predictive capacity based on observations and modeling. This assessment will be jointly delivered to the Executive Office of the President and Congress, with a non-classified version released to the public.
- Demonstrating U.S. leadership amid great power competition in the Arctic by immediately ending Trump Administration plans — currently put on hold by court order — to engage in oil drilling in the Arctic Ocean. Additionally, the Inslee Administration will advance legislation through Congress to create authority for a U.S. Ambassador-at-large for Arctic Affairs, responsible for consistent high-level representation of the United States at a level equal to that of U.S. allies and peer competitors, and creation of an interagency working group to establish the fastest way of surging new disaster response, communications infrastructure, port and physical infrastructure, and other investments in Alaska to support enhanced economic activity in America’s largest state and the world’s northernmost ocean.
- Convening regional climate security dialogues with international partners. These dialogues will be jointly organized by USAID, DOD, and the State Department to address existing resilience and critical climate-related threats to national and regional security, including: extreme weather events; livelihood insecurity; domestic and transboundary resource scarcity and conflict; sea-level rise; and migration. The aim of these dialogues will be to establish resilience priorities and implement plans that enhance national and regional security, with a focus on vulnerable developing countries.
Anticipating and Deploying International Disaster Assistance to Address Loss and Damage
A 2018 U.S. Geological Survey study predicts that by mid-century, thousands of low-lying atolls in the Pacific will be uninhabitable because of climate-induced sea level rise. There has already been significant internal migration directly attributable to climate change. And according to the World Bank, more than 140 million people are expected to be driven from their homes by climate change by midcentury.
During the past 10 years, Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries have been leading a charge to create an international mechanism to attend to climate impacts that are largely beyond adaptation. They have worked to get these kinds of climate impacts recognized in the U.N. climate negotiations as “Loss and Damage.” There are two categories of Loss and Damage climate events: slow-onset threats, such as sea level rise; and repetitive extreme weather events to an extent that recovery is either impractical or impossible. Working out how to form an effective and cooperative international response to these kinds of impacts now encompasses the range of some of the hardest issues in international cooperation, including significant expansion and distribution of early warning and preparedness systems, disaster risk and response, and migration of displaced persons. Some of these challenges will be extremely difficult to adequately address, such as the loss of a homeland or loss of the basis of a culture through elimination of traditional labor practices and institutions that can be thousands of years old.
The UNFCCC initiated cooperative momentum on this set of issues by creating the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damage in 2013, and that led to a path forward in the Paris Agreement. With President Trump’s disengagement from international climate cooperation, America has rejected a constructive role in the creation of a stable regime to attend to these issues; in turn, he has forfeited the good will created with some of the most vulnerable countries in the world with whom we carefully negotiated the provisions on Loss and Damage in the Paris Agreement. If we fail to execute these cooperative programs, and those countries getting hit first and worst by climate change see a lack of resolve to implement these solutions, we also risk a larger and more dangerous erosion of the platform of consensus that made the Paris Agreement possible. Such an outcome would affect stability around the globe and leave the most vulnerable people on the planet with no lifeline in the face of increasing harm. Governor Inslee’s plan will proactively seek cooperative solutions to these issues by:
- Expanding U.S. participation in the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damage under the UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement calls for enhanced cooperation among the parties to the agreement on a range of issues, including: early warning systems; emergency preparedness; slow onset events; comprehensive risk assessment; risk insurance facilities and climate risk pooling; and resilience of communities, livelihoods, and ecosystems. With these priorities established, the United States will accelerate its work across all relevant agencies involved in all major multilateral and bilateral forums to implement these measures and create a special program administered through USAID under the Global Climate Change Initiative to assist in work with vulnerable countries.
- Working with the recommendations of the Protection Agenda of the Platform on Disaster Displacement and the Nansen Initiative on Disaster-Induced Cross-Border Displacement, supported by the United States, to form an effective means to work directly with highly threatened nations and communities on displacement aimed, in part, at creating an expanded capacity to take in communities displaced by climate change.
Prioritizing Climate Security in the U.N. Security Council
At present there is no higher international body capable of elevating global security risks and mobilizing international cooperation on these risks than the U.N. Security Council. While climate change has been debated a number of times before the Council, and climate security provisions have made their way into a few Council resolutions, so far this has not resulted in robust initiatives aimed at managing or reducing climate-related security risks. The United States will work to promote the mobilization of the broader U.N. system on implementation of a response to problems of Loss and Damage and other climate and security risks, which has decades of experience and greater capacity to work on human displacement. To take up these challenges, Governor Inslee’s plan includes:
- Appointing a U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations who not only understands the climate challenge, and is capable and committed to keeping it before the Security Council, but who will also operate with a mandate to expand engagement on climate change beyond the UNFCCC. The United States will reintroduce a debate on climate and security in the Security Council, and more importantly, it will work to ensure that the threat posed by climate change is well understood in broader security threats taken up by the Council day to day, and that any U.N. responses to those threats, in turn, grapple with their climate-related constraints.
- Prioritizing work on climate-related security in the U.S. Permanent Mission to the United Nations so that it: improves the effectiveness of U.N. institutions working on climate change and security; engages countries in the work of better orienting U.N. institutions to cooperatively respond to these threats; and helps countries seeking assistance on climate and security threats to the information they need. Working with the State Department’s Bureau for International Organizations and Bureau for Oceans, Environment and International Scientific Affairs, it will also help to channel vulnerable countries to the best American capacity to assist them in improving technical and policy measures to respond to these threats.
- Advocating for the creation of a U.N. Special Rapporteur on Climate and Security to oversee the emergence of global climate and security threats and regularly report on the effectiveness of the U.N. response to these threats. The Rapporteur will work with the Security Council and other member states to create a comprehensive plan for improving the capacity of the U.N. to coordinate responses to climate-related displacement and disasters.